A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
